Democrats have relied on President Franklin D. Roosevelts coalition to control the White House and Congress for much of the past eight decades, with black voters being the most reliable bloc in the alliance.
But three recent national polls may signal big changes ahead in Americas political balance of power.
Rasmussen Reports announced Nov. 22 that 34 percent of blacks in the latest survey said they now support President Donald Trump. Shortly thereafter, Emerson Polling said it found that 34.5 percent of blacks back the president.
Since only 8 percent of black voters supported Trump in the 2016 election, such a shift in the Democratic Partys most loyal constituency quickly sparked glee among conservative commentators and derisive outrage among liberals.
Typical of the latter was CNN analyst Ana Navarros quip that the pollsters must have only interviewed prominent black Trump supporters Kanye West; his wife, Kim Kardashian; former Wisconsin Sheriff David Clarke; and YouTube stars Diamond and Silk.
But then the latest Marist poll showed 33.5 percent of “non-whites,” including both blacks and Hispanics, were in favor of the president.
In fact, growing support among blacks for Trump is not a new thing. When Kanye West met with Trump in the Oval Office in 2018 and proclaimed his enthusiasm for the president, Hoover Institution professor Victor Davis Hanson described the potential for a shift in black electoral allegiance:
“Even 20 percent African American support for Trump would all but dismantle Democratic Party presidential hopes for 2020. … A small drop in African American turnout or anything less than the usual 85 percent to 90 percent supermajority for a Democratic presidential candidate on Election Day can prove fatal.”
Democrat Confidence and Trepidation
Democratic strategist Robin Biro also saw a threat, telling The Epoch Times on Dec. 2 that he was initially “a little leery” of the Rasmussen numbers, until he read the polling numbers from the Marist Poll.
Biro, a U.S. Army Airborne Ranger veteran and former regional field director for President Barack Obama, recalled the Trump–West Oval Office confab, saying, “While my peers on my side of the aisle were having a good time poking fun at Trump for meeting with Kim Kardashian, I was concerned because she and Kanye West have a vast sphere of influence.”
Biro credited Trump for planting seeds with black voters and warned that the three polls “should serve as a cautionary tale to my Democratic peers to not take anything for granted in politics, be it wild celebrity endorsements, meetings, etc.—this is not your grandfathers game of politics.”
“There has not been nearly enough said on the Democratic presidential debate stages about what we plan to do to help communities of color, and the frustrations are palpable among these communities for that,” he said.
Other Democratic campaign strategists interviewed by The Epoch Times, however, were less pessimistic about the three polls.
Boots Road Group Managing Partner Spencer Critchley, for example, pointed to Gallup surveys as a more realistic snapshot of the electorate.
“As is so often the case with polls President Trump likes, the Rasmussen and Emerson results appear to be outliers. For example, the straight-down-the-middle Gallup poll finds black support statistically unchanged over the past three years: 10 percent in 2017, 11 percent in 2018, and 10 percent so far this year (to Nov. 20),” Critchley said.
Critchley also cited GOP pollster Frank Luntzs warning that a week before the 2018 elections, Rasmussen showed 40 percent of blacks going with Trump, but then only 8 percent voted Republican.
Jim Manley, former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reids (D-Nev.) communications director, told The Epoch Times that he sees nothing in the three polls to warrant a particular response from Democrats.
“Look, we as a party cant afford to take anyone for granted this cycle, but, given the economy is doing okay, its kind of surprising that [Trump] hasnt been able to pick up additional support from the African American community. He cant pull it off because most of them see right through his cheap talk and Kanye-type moments,” he said.
Enthusiasm about the polls remains strong among Republicans. Jennilee Brown, vice president for operRead More – Source